The Djinnex Desk dashboard

This is what a day looks like in your dashboard.

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Illustrative example. It isn’t a real analysis or a screenshot of the product.

More about this example

It follows the shape of a real day, but with every figure changed and no date: the prices aren’t those of any actual day, and part of the example has been recreated so that the sessions fit together as a single day. The Asia session, which also has its two publications, appears here as a single example report, the one published before the open. In your dashboard, each session shows its date at the top. Each key zone has its letter and its price band (each asset has its own), and the charts don’t show times. Each session assigns its own letters: an asset’s zone B in London may not be the same as in New York.

First time? How to read this report

Your dashboard · Djinnex Desk Illustrative example

Djinnex Desk

An example day

Your market day

Asia

Opens the day

Example date

Example report for Asia

Nikkei 225
Gold
Silver
Bitcoin

London

In the morning

Example date

Before the open in London
Second look in London

DAX
FTSE 100
Gold
Silver
Brent
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

New York

In the afternoon

Example date

Before the open in New York
Second look in New York

Dow Jones
Nasdaq 100
S&P 500
Gold
Silver
WTI
Bitcoin
USD/CAD

Asia session

Example report · Produced with artificial intelligence

Asia example report: what’s expected for the session

Before the Asia open

01 The day, summed up

At a glance ·

4 assets: Bullish 2, Sideways 2 and Bearish 0.

Bullish Sideways Bearish
Confidence: low medium high

Nikkei 225 Bullish medium confidence
Gold Sideways medium confidence
Silver Sideways low confidence
Bitcoin Bullish low confidence

It’s an expectation from the analysis. It isn’t a certainty, a buy or sell order, or a personalised recommendation.

The day’s context · What’s moving the market today

After the New York close: US indices closed mixed: tech higher and the Dow Jones lower again. The , the Tokyo stock market index, is already trading above yesterday’s close, lifted by tech. The dollar is still somewhat weak. Gold and silver are barely moving, near their New York close, after a round trip in the New York session. Bitcoin, which trades around the clock, is bouncing from that close.
What’s driving the market: tech and the yen: The rise in tech in New York is lifting the Nikkei 225, where that sector carries a lot of weight. But the yen, Japan’s currency, is gaining some ground against the weak dollar, and a strong yen tends to hold the index back: what Japan’s big exporters earn abroad is worth less in yen. For gold and silver, the weak dollar gives them a push, while in the US, which are still rising, act as a brake. The Bank of Japan, for now, isn’t changing the script.
Schedule and: Before the open No major data in Japan.

High-risk hour: The first half hour After the Tokyo stock exchange opens, when the high or low of the Asia session is most often set.

High-risk hour: The return from the lunch break The Tokyo stock exchange pauses at midday; when it comes back, the Nikkei 225 can move sharply.

After the Asia session Europe’s data comes later, with the London session.

02 Asset by asset

Nikkei 225

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, the Nikkei 225 is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (45,395–45,425). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Pulling back at the open to zone A, yesterday’s high in Tokyo, and holding there.
: If it breaks zone C, where it is now, and holds above it: zone D, the week’s high.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of the Nikkei 225 (the Tokyo stock market index) from the Asia example report. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A, B and E. Before the open, the price moves sideways on zone B, yesterday’s close in Tokyo, breaks zone A, yesterday’s high, and rises to zone C. If it doesn’t lose zone B, a rise towards zone D is expected, with a possible pullback to zone A. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone E is expected.

To be reviewed in the Asia second look

The three that matter most

Zone C · 45,640–45,665 The high since the New York close, where the price is now. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 45,505–45,525 Yesterday’s high in Tokyo: broken after the New York close, it now acts as support. The price could pull back there before rising further.
Zone B · 45,395–45,425 The deciding zone: yesterday’s close in Tokyo. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled and the at the open is closed.

Also on the chart: zone D · 45,840–45,875, the week’s high, above, and zone E · 45,230–45,260, yesterday’s low in Tokyo, below.

Why

Why: tech rose in New York and the Nikkei 225, where that sector carries a lot of weight, is already trading above yesterday’s close in Tokyo: it broke yesterday’s high, zone A, and is holding above it. If it opens where it is trading now, it will open with a to the upside. The is medium: a gap like this often brings a pullback at the open, and the yen, which is gaining ground against the weak dollar, could hold the index back.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it pulls back to zone A and holds, it gains strength. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, the is zone D, the week’s high.
If it loses zone B and holds below it, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall towards zone E, yesterday’s low in Tokyo, is expected. It gains strength if the yen strengthens sharply.
If it briefly loses zone A at the open and quickly gets back above, it was a sweep: the rise is still alive, with zone C ahead.

With upside gaps of this kind in Tokyo, this happened about three times in ten.

Gold

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, gold is expected to move in a range, between zone B (4,041.5–4,042.5) and zone A (4,075.4–4,083.0). If it moves outside either of them and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone A stopping the rises and zone B, the falls.
: If zone A stops it, zone C, the middle of the range, and then zone B. If zone B holds, zone C.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of gold from the Asia example report. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, C, B and E. Before the open, the price moves sideways around zone C, the close of the last New York session: it dips slightly, rises again and is now inside it. If it breaks neither zone A nor zone B, a range between the two is expected, with zone C in the middle. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone E.

To be reviewed in the Asia second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 4,075.4–4,083.0 The upper edge of the range: the high of the last New York session. Clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone C · 4,059.8–4,063.5 The close of the last New York session, where the price is now: the middle of the range.
Zone B · 4,041.5–4,042.5 The lower edge of the range: the low of the last New York session. Just below it there are .

Also on the chart: zone D · 4,099.9–4,105.3, the week’s high, above, and zone E · 4,030.6–4,031.3, the week’s low, below.

Why

Why: the weak dollar is pushing it up and rising US Treasury yields are holding it back: two forces pulling in opposite directions. Since the close of the last New York session, zone C, it has moved little and always stayed near that level. With no major data in Asia, the session most often stays inside the of the last New York session, between its high and its low. The is medium: if the dollar turns around, gold could break out of the range sharply.

Scenarios

between zones B and A, with zone C in the middle. If it reaches zone A and shows rejection, a move back towards zone C and then zone B is expected; if it reaches zone B and holds, a move back towards zone C. In the middle, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D, the week’s high, is expected. If it loses zone B and holds below it, a fall towards zone E, the week’s low.
If it briefly clears zone A or loses zone B and quickly comes back inside, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone C, the middle of the range.

In gold, in Asia sessions without major data, this happened about four times in ten.

Silver

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, silver is expected to move in a range, between zone B (47.52–47.57) and zone A (47.95–48.04). If it moves outside either of them and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Zone A stopping it again, as after the New York close, and gold staying in its range.
: If zone A stops it, zone C, the middle of the range, and then zone B. If zone B holds, zone C.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of silver from the Asia example report. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, C, B and E. Before the open, the price rises from zone C to zone A, the high of the last New York session, stalls with a long wick and comes back towards the middle of the range: it is now just above zone C. If it breaks neither zone A nor zone B, a range between the two is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone E.

To be reviewed in the Asia second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 47.95–48.04 The upper edge of the range: the high of the last New York session. Since the close, it has already stopped silver once.
Zone C · 47.76–47.81 The close of the last New York session: the middle of the range. The price is now just above it.
Zone B · 47.52–47.57 The lower edge of the range: the low of the last New York session. Just below it there are .

Also on the chart: zone D · 48.23–48.30, the week’s high, above, and zone E · 47.42–47.43, the week’s low, below.

Why

Why: silver tends to move with gold, and gold is expected to stay in a range. After the close of the last New York session, silver rose to zone A, that session’s high, and stalled there: it has come back towards the middle. The is low: silver moves more than gold and its are longer; if gold breaks out on one side, silver tends to go further.

Scenarios

between zones B and A, like gold. If it returns to zone A and is rejected there again, a move back towards zone C and then zone B is expected; if it reaches zone B and holds, a move back towards zone C. In the middle, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D, the week’s high, is expected. If it loses zone B and holds below it, a fall towards zone E, the week’s low. It gains strength if gold breaks out of its range on the same side.
If it briefly clears zone A and quickly comes back inside, as after the New York close, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone C.

In silver, with gold in a range, this happened about half the time.

Bitcoin

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, Bitcoin is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (111,880–112,020). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Breaking zone A and holding above it.
: Zone D, the high of the last New York session.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of Bitcoin from the Asia example report. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price dips briefly to zone C, bounces, recovers zone B and rises to zone A, which stops it twice; it is now just below it. If it doesn’t lose zone B, a rise towards zone D is expected, with a possible pullback to zone B. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone C is expected.

To be reviewed in the Asia second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 112,225–112,290 The ceiling since the New York close: it has stopped the price twice. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone B · 111,880–112,020 The deciding zone: the price at the close of the last New York session, where the bounce started. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.
Zone C · 111,780–111,830 The floor since the New York close: the next reference level below if it loses zone B. Just below it there are .

Also on the chart: zone D · 112,760–112,830, the high of the last New York session, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: Bitcoin trades around the clock: after the close of the last New York session, it dipped briefly to zone C, bounced as tech rose and has recovered zone B, the closing price. Risk appetite is helping it. is low: zone A has already stopped it twice, and the rise in is cooling that appetite.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it pulls back to zone B and holds, it gains strength. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, the is zone D, the high of the last New York session.
If it loses zone B and holds below it, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall towards zone C, the floor since the close, is expected. It gains strength if Asian stock markets turn lower.
If it briefly clears zone A and quickly drops back below, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone B.

After two stalls at the same ceiling, this happened about four times in ten.

Each asset has its own zones: the Nikkei 225’s zone A has nothing to do with gold’s. And each session has its own: gold’s zone B in Asia isn’t the same as in London. The letters don’t follow price order; the list runs from top to bottom, like the chart.

03 The session

Your broker may show a different price

The charts (5-minute candles) and the key zones use prices from the reference market, which are neither the stock exchange’s nor the futures market’s. Your broker’s prices will most likely differ slightly, sometimes by quite a bit more. Some candles or wicks may also not match exactly. Go by the key zones and by where the price is relative to them on the chart, not by the exact figure.

Session guide

What to expect: a Tokyo open with the Nikkei 225 above yesterday’s close: the clearest idea is its rise, as long as it holds above zone B. Then gold’s range, between the high and the low of the last New York session; silver and Bitcoin come last, with low confidence. The thermometer isn’t reviewed until the Asia second look: in the meantime, watch what would cancel each expectation.

Watch out for…

jumping on the first breakout at the Tokyo open, in any of the four: it is often a ;
assuming the Nikkei 225 will keep rising without a breather: with a gap to the upside, a pullback at the open is normal;
treating gold and silver as two separate ideas: silver tends to move with gold, but it moves more;
the middle of the gold and silver range, their zone C: there, the price tells you nothing;
chasing Bitcoin before it breaks zone A: it has already been stopped there twice.

The full details

See the full analysis

All the key zones: As well as the three on each card, zone D for each asset (and zone E for the Nikkei 225, gold and silver): the next reference levels above or below, with their price band. You can see them on the enlarged chart.
The full scenarios: Each scenario with its condition, what would strengthen it and what would cancel it. Session statistic: in all four, the first half hour after the Tokyo open is when the high or low of the Asia session is most often set.
1-minute candles: The Nikkei 225 has been rising with higher highs and higher lows since it broke yesterday’s high. Gold is going back and forth around the New York close. Silver stalled at zone A with a long wick and is returning to the middle. Bitcoin has stalled twice at zone A, with ever higher lows.
What’s being adjusted today: In silver, the sweeps of recent sessions ran long: today it comes with low confidence, and the reading focuses on the edges of the range, not on breakouts.
Risks: A sharp rise in the yen, which would hold back the Nikkei 225. A jump in US Treasury yields, which would strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold and silver. Unexpected news: with less volume than in London or New York, gold, silver and Bitcoin can move sharply.

London session

Stage 1 · Produced with artificial intelligence

Before the London open: the pre-open report

01 The day, summed up

At a glance ·

7 assets: Bullish 5, Sideways 2 and Bearish 0.

Bullish Sideways Bearish
Confidence: low medium high

DAX Bullish medium confidence
FTSE 100 Sideways medium confidence
Gold Bullish low confidence
Silver Bullish low confidence
Brent Sideways low confidence
EUR/USD Bullish medium confidence
GBP/USD Bullish low confidence

It’s an expectation from the analysis. It isn’t a certainty, a buy or sell order, or a personalised recommendation.

The day’s context · What’s moving the market today

The session and the headlines: Asia, mixed. In the early hours, a geopolitical headline, still without an official response, is pushing down the price of . European stock markets are rising before the open, and the , the German stock market index, is already trading well above the previous close; the , its London counterpart, is rising much less. The dollar is giving ground: (the euro against the dollar) and (the pound against the dollar) are rising slowly. Gold rose overnight, gave it all back and is now bouncing with the weak dollar. Silver did the same.
What’s driving the market: the dollar and Brent: A weak dollar lifts the euro, the pound, gold and silver. And cheaper Brent brings relief to Europe, which imports almost all the oil it consumes: good news for the German stock market; less so for London’s, where oil companies carry a lot of weight. But in the US are still rising: if the dollar recovers, it could do so sharply. The European Central Bank, for now, isn’t changing the script.
Schedule and: Before the open No major data in Europe.

High-risk hour: The first half hour After the London open, when the morning’s high or low is most often set.

High-risk hour: One hour after the open Europe’s morning data. Today, only a minor release: euro area lending and money supply. It doesn’t usually move much, but the price gets choppy at that time.

After the London session US data comes later, with the New York session.

02 Asset by asset

DAX

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, the DAX is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (24,137–24,148). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Pulling back to zone A and holding there.
: If it breaks zone C, where it is now, and holds above it: zone D, the week’s high.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of the DAX (the German stock market index) before the London open. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A, B and E. Before the open, the price moves sideways on zone B, breaks zone A, the overnight high, and rises to zone C. If it doesn’t lose zone B, a rise towards zone D is expected, with a possible pullback to zone A. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone E is expected.

To be reviewed in the London second look

The three that matter most

Zone C · 24,222–24,231 The morning high, where the price is now. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 24,165–24,172 The : broken before the open. The price could pull back there before rising further.
Zone B · 24,137–24,148 The deciding zone: the morning low, where the rise started. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone D · 24,272–24,286, the week’s high, above, and zone E · 24,083–24,092, the overnight low, below.

Why

Why: the session was quiet and, once morning came, the DAX broke the overnight high, zone A, and is holding above it. Cheaper Brent and a rising Europe are helping it. If it opens where it is trading now, it will open with a to the upside, well above the previous close. The is medium: a gap this big often brings a pullback at the open, and US Treasury yields are still rising.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it pulls back to zone A and holds, it gains strength. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, the is zone D.
If it loses zone B and holds below it, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall towards zone E, the overnight low, is expected. It gains strength if Brent recovers what it lost overnight.
If it briefly clears zone C and quickly drops back below, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone A and then to B.

With upside gaps of this kind, this happened about four times in ten.

FTSE 100

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, the FTSE 100 is expected to move in a range, between zone B (9,636–9,642) and zone A (9,662–9,668). If it moves outside either of them and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone A stopping the rises and zone B, the falls.
: If zone A stops it again, the middle of the range and then zone B. If zone B holds, the middle of the range.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of the FTSE 100 (the London stock market index) before the London open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price leaves zone C, the overnight low, recovers zone B and stalls twice at zone A; it is now in the middle of the range. If it breaks neither of them, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

To be reviewed in the London second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 9,662–9,668 The : the upper edge of the range. It has stopped the price twice before the open; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone B · 9,636–9,642 The lower edge of the range: the price at yesterday’s close, recovered before the open.
Zone C · 9,612–9,618 The overnight low: the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 9,688–9,694, the week’s high, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: the session was quiet and, with the rest of Europe rising, the FTSE 100 has recovered yesterday’s close, zone B. But it is rising much less than the DAX: oil and mining companies carry a lot of weight in the FTSE 100, and cheaper Brent holds it back; on top of that, with the pound rising, what its big multinationals earn abroad is worth less in pounds. That’s why zone A, the overnight high, has stopped it twice. The is medium: both edges are clear, but Brent is in charge, and an official response to the news could push the FTSE 100 out of the .

Scenarios

between zones B and A. If it returns to zone A and shows rejection, a move back towards the middle and zone B is expected; if it drops to zone B and holds, a move back towards the middle. In the middle, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D, the week’s high, is expected. If it loses zone B and holds below it, a fall towards zone C, the overnight low. Brent would decide which way it breaks out: if it rebounds, it pulls upwards; if it keeps falling, downwards.
If it briefly clears zone A and quickly comes back inside, it was a sweep: the focus returns to the middle and zone B.

In the FTSE 100, with the overnight high tested twice before the open, this happened about four times in ten.

Gold

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, gold is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (4,059.8–4,063.5). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Breaking zone A and holding above it.
: Zone D, the overnight high.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of gold before the London open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price falls to zone C, the overnight low, rebounds strongly, stalls at zone A and comes back to zone B. If it does not lose zone B, a rise towards zone D is expected, perhaps after moving around a little between zones B and A. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone C is expected.

To be reviewed in the London second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 4,066.6–4,067.8 The morning high: that is where the rebound stalled. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone B · 4,059.8–4,063.5 The deciding zone: the price at the close of the last New York session, recovered on the rebound. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.
Zone C · 4,041.5–4,042.5 The : the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 4,075.4–4,083.0, the overnight high, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: it rose to zone D and gave it all back: it fell to zone C, by then below the close of the last New York session. From there it has rebounded strongly, with the dollar weak, and has recovered that close, zone B. The is low: US Treasury yields are still rising, and that tends to hold gold back; and zone A, the morning high, has already stopped it.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, it gains strength, with zone D, the overnight high, as the . Between zones B and A, patience.
If it loses zone B and holds below it, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall towards zone C, the overnight low, is expected. It gains strength if the dollar turns higher.
If it briefly loses zone B and quickly gets back above, it was a sweep: the rise is still alive, with zone A ahead.

In gold, after overnight round trips like this one, this happened about three times in ten.

Silver

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, silver is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (47.76–47.81). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Breaking zone A and holding above it, with gold also rising.
: If it breaks zone A, zone D, the overnight high.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of silver before the London open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price falls to zone C, the overnight low, rebounds, stalls at zone A and finds support at zone B again. If it does not lose zone B, a rise towards zone D is expected. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone C is expected.

To be reviewed in the London second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 47.84–47.86 The morning high: that is where the rebound stalled, as in gold. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone B · 47.76–47.81 The deciding zone: the price at the close of the last New York session, recovered on the rebound. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.
Zone C · 47.55–47.56 The : the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 47.95–48.04, the overnight high, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: it did the same as gold: it rose to zone D and gave it all back, down to zone C, below the close of the last New York session. From there it is rebounding on the weak dollar: it stalled at zone A, the morning high, and is now finding support at that close, zone B. The is low: silver tends to follow gold, but it moves more than gold does and with more , and US Treasury yields are still rising.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, it gains strength, with zone D, the overnight high, as the . Watch gold too: if it breaks its morning high, silver tends to go with it.
If it loses zone B and holds below it, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall towards zone C, the overnight low, is expected. It gains strength if gold also loses its zone B.
If it briefly loses zone B and quickly gets back above, it was a sweep: the rise is still alive, with zone A ahead.

In silver, after overnight round trips like this one, this happened almost four times in ten.

Brent

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, Brent crude is expected to move in a range, between zone B (63.05–63.15) and zone A (63.68–63.80). If it moves outside either of them and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone A stopping the rises and zone B, the falls.
: If zone A stops it, the middle of the range and then zone B. If zone B holds, the middle of the range.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of Brent crude before the London open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price moves sideways below zone A, falls to zone B, makes a double bottom and returns to the middle of the range. If it breaks neither, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

To be reviewed in the London second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 63.68–63.80 The top of the early-hours rebound: the upper edge of the range. Just above it there are .
Zone B · 63.05–63.15 The lower edge of the range: the morning double bottom.
Zone C · 62.58–62.70 The week’s low: the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 64.18–64.30, where the price was before the news, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: , the geopolitical news has pushed it lower. The early-hours rebound stalled at zone A and, once morning came, the price fell to zone B, where it has made a double bottom. It is now in the middle, between the two. The is low: there is still no official response to the news and, one way or the other, it could push the price out of the .

Scenarios

between zones B and A. If it reaches zone A and shows rejection, a move back towards the middle and zone B is expected; if it reaches zone B and holds, a move back towards the middle. In the middle, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D, where the price was before the news, is expected. If it loses zone B and holds below it, a fall towards zone C, the week’s low. An official response to the news would decide which way it breaks out.
If it briefly clears zone A and quickly comes back inside, it was a sweep: the focus returns to the middle and zone B.

With unconfirmed news, this happened slightly less than three times in ten.

EUR/USD

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, EUR/USD is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (1.0789–1.0792). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Pulling back to zone A and holding there.
: Zone C, the week’s high.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of EUR/USD (euro against the dollar) before the London open. From top to bottom, key zones C, A, B and D. Before the open, the price moves sideways above zone D, rises slowly, pauses at zone B and breaks zone A, the overnight high. If it does not lose zone B, a rise towards zone C is expected, with a possible pullback to zone A. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone D is expected.

To be reviewed in the London second look

The three that matter most

Zone C · 1.0809–1.0812 The week’s high: the next reference level above. Clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 1.0797–1.0799 The : it has just broken it and it now acts as support. The price could pull back there before rising further.
Zone B · 1.0789–1.0792 The deciding zone: the morning shelf, where the price paused before breaking the overnight high. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone D · 1.0784–1.0786, the morning low, below.

Why

Why: the dollar is giving ground and the euro has just broken the , zone A. The morning data in Europe is minor and doesn’t usually move it much. The is medium: US Treasury yields are still rising, and that tends to support the dollar. Also, at this time of day the euro doesn’t move much: the rise is slow.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it pulls back to zone A and holds, it gains strength. The is zone C, the week’s high.
If it loses zone B and holds below it, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall towards zone D, the morning low, is expected. It gains strength if GBP/USD also turns lower.
If it briefly loses zone A at the open and quickly gets back above, it was a sweep: the rise is still alive, with zone C ahead.

In similar London opens, this happened slightly more than three times in ten.

GBP/USD

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, GBP/USD is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (1.2779–1.2782). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Breaking zone C and holding above it.
: Zone D, the week’s high.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of GBP/USD (pound against the dollar) before the London open. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A, B and E. Before the open, the price moves sideways above zone E, rises, pauses at zone B, breaks zone A, the overnight high, and stalls several times at zone C. If it does not lose zone B, a rise towards zone D is expected, with a possible pullback to zone A. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone E is expected.

To be reviewed in the London second look

The three that matter most

Zone C · 1.2792–1.2794 The morning high: it has stopped the price several times. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 1.2786–1.2788 The : it broke it before the open and it now acts as support.
Zone B · 1.2779–1.2782 The deciding zone: the morning shelf. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone D · 1.2803–1.2806, the week’s high, above, and zone E · 1.2774–1.2776, the morning low, below.

Why

Why: like the euro, the pound is rising on the weak dollar and has already broken the high it set , zone A. The is low: it has run into zone C several times without breaking it, and the pound tends to move more than the euro, with more . There is no major UK data today.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, it gains strength, with zone D as the . Between zones B and C, patience.
If it loses zone B and holds below it, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall towards zone E, the morning low, is expected. It gains strength if EUR/USD also turns lower.
If it briefly clears zone C and quickly drops back below, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone A and then to B.

With the pound, in similar sessions, this happened about one time in three.

Each asset has its own zones: the DAX’s zone A has nothing to do with EUR/USD’s. And each session has its own: gold’s zone B in London is not the one in New York. The letters do not follow price order; the list runs from top to bottom, like the chart.

03 The session

Your broker may show a different price

Session guide

What to expect: an open with possible traps near the morning highs. The clearest idea is the rise in EUR/USD, with the dollar weak; then, the DAX above its zone B and the FTSE 100 range; GBP/USD, gold, silver and Brent come last, with low confidence. The thermometer is not reviewed until the London second look: in the meantime, watch what would cancel each expectation.

Watch out for…

jumping on the first breakout at the London open, in any of the seven: it is often a ;
assuming the DAX will keep rising without a breather: with such a big gap, a pullback at the open is normal;
the middle of the FTSE 100 and Brent ranges, between their zones B and A: there, the price tells you nothing;
chasing gold’s rebound: zone A has already stopped it, and rising Treasury yields are pulling it down;
treating silver as a copy of gold: it tends to move with it, but it moves more and with more sweeps;
taking the news that is weighing on Brent as final: without an official response, the price can turn around abruptly;
treating EUR/USD and GBP/USD as two separate ideas: both depend on the dollar and tend to move together.

The full details

See the full analysis

All the key zones: As well as the three on each card, zone D for each asset (and zone E for the DAX and GBP/USD): the next reference levels above or below, each with its price band. You can see them on the enlarged chart.
The full scenarios: Each scenario with its condition, what would strengthen it and what would cancel it. Session statistic: in all seven, the first half hour after the London open is when the morning high or low is most often set.
1-minute candles: The DAX has been rising with higher highs and higher lows since it broke the overnight high. The FTSE 100 rises slowly from yesterday’s close and stalls twice at zone A. Gold rebounds strongly from the overnight low and stalls at zone A. Silver rebounds the same way, stalls at its zone A and finds support at zone B again. Brent rebounds from the double bottom at zone B. EUR/USD rises slowly, with hardly any pullbacks. GBP/USD stalls several times at zone C.
What’s being adjusted today: GBP/USD has produced false breakouts in recent sessions: today it carries low confidence, and the rise only gains strength if it breaks zone C and holds above it. In the FTSE 100 and Brent, with the news unconfirmed, the edges of the range are what count, not the breakouts.
Risks: An official response to the news that is weighing on Brent. A jump in US Treasury yields, which would strengthen the dollar. The morning data, even though it is minor.

Stage 2 · Produced with artificial intelligence

London second look: what the open and the data have shown

After the morning data in Europe

01 The day, summed up

At a glance ·

7 assets: Bullish 3, Sideways 3 and Bearish 1.

Bullish Sideways Bearish
Confidence: low medium high
Change compared with the previous stage

DAX Bullish medium confidence No change
FTSE 100 Sideways medium confidence No change
Gold Bullish low confidence No change
Silver Sideways low confidence Change previously: ~~Bullish~~
Brent Bearish low confidence Change previously: ~~Sideways~~
EUR/USD Sideways medium confidence Change previously: ~~Bullish~~
GBP/USD Bullish medium confidence Confidence change previously: ~~low~~

It’s an expectation from the analysis. It isn’t a certainty, a buy or sell order, or a personalised recommendation.

The essentials now

The DAX did what was expected, with a scare: the at zone C came before the open, zone B held and, after a sweep on the data, the DAX has broken zone C. Still Bullish.
The FTSE 100 did what was expected: at the open it briefly cleared zone A and came back inside, a trap, and on the data zone B held. Still Sideways.
Gold briefly lost zone B in the first hour and got back above; on the data, it broke zone A and reached zone D, the overnight high: the main scenario played out. Still Bullish, with low confidence.
Silver briefly lost zone B at the open and got back above; on the data it rose with gold, but zone A stopped it twice: silver is not following gold and moves to Sideways, with low confidence.
Brent broke zone A and reached zone D, where it was before the news: it played out as in the . It turned there: it moves to Bearish, with low confidence.
EUR/USD returned to zone A at the open, held and reached zone C, the week’s high: it played out as in the . It has stalled there: it moves to Sideways, between zones A and C.
GBP/USD finally broke zone C and reached zone D on the data: still Bullish, now with medium confidence.

What has happened since the open

The London open brought what it usually brings: sweeps. The DAX had already sprung its trap at zone C just before the open, and dropped to zone B. The pound fell below the overnight high, the euro came back to it and held, gold and silver swept the closing price of the last New York session and got back above, and the FTSE 100, pushed by Brent, swept its zone A. Only Brent went the other way: it broke zone A and rose to where it was before the news. The morning data was minor and brought no surprises, but that was when the turn came. The DAX swept zone B and turned higher; the euro and the pound reached their highs of the week, and gold broke the morning high and reached the overnight high, although silver stalled at its own. Brent, on the other hand, stalled at zone D and turned, and the FTSE 100 fell with it to its zone B, which held. Same morning, seven different paths.

02 Asset by asset

DAX

In one sentence No change: with medium confidence, the DAX is still expected to rise, now as long as it above zone F (24,196–24,205). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

medium confidence

No change

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Pulling back to zone C and holding there.
: Zone D, the week’s high.
: Losing zone F and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of the DAX (the German stock market index) in the London second look. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, F, A and B. Before the open, the price rises to zone C, briefly clears it and drops back below; in the first hour it falls to zone B, which holds, and on the data it sweeps it and comes back. It then rises strongly and breaks zone C. If it does not lose zone F, a rise towards zone D is expected, with a possible pullback to zone C. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled, with zone A as the next reference level.

For the rest of the London session

The three that matter most now

Zone D · 24,272–24,286 The week’s high: the next reference level above.
Zone C · 24,222–24,231 The pre-open high: it broke it after the data and it now acts as support.
Zone F · 24,196–24,205 : where the last push started and where a pullback could turn higher. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone A · 24,165–24,172, the overnight high, lost in the first hour and recovered after the data, and zone B · 24,137–24,148, the morning low, which held and was briefly swept on the data.

Why

Why: the open brought a scare, but the idea held. The at zone C came just before the open, and the price dropped to zone A and then to zone B, which held four times. On the data it lost it briefly and got back above: a . From there, a strong rise: it has broken zone C and, for now, is holding above it. is medium: the rise has been very fast and zone D, the week’s high, is close.

FTSE 100

In one sentence No change: with medium confidence, the FTSE 100 is still expected to move in a range, between zone B (9,636–9,642) and zone A (9,662–9,668). If it moves outside either of them and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

medium confidence

No change

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges continuing to hold: zone A has already stopped the rise at the open and zone B, the fall on the data.
: If zone B holds again, the middle of the range and then zone A.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of the FTSE 100 (the London stock market index) in the London second look. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price leaves zone C, recovers zone B and stalls twice at zone A. At the open it briefly clears zone A and comes back inside; on the data it falls to zone B, which holds, and rebounds towards the middle of the range. If it breaks neither, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

For the rest of the London session

The three that matter most now

Zone A · 9,662–9,668 The overnight high, the upper edge of the range: at the open it briefly cleared it and came back inside. That was the .
Zone B · 9,636–9,642 Yesterday’s close, the lower edge of the range: it withstood the fall that came with the data.
Zone C · 9,612–9,618 The : the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 9,688–9,694, the week’s high, the next reference level above if it breaks zone A.

Why

Why: the idea held. At the open, Brent rose strongly and lifted the oil stocks: the FTSE 100 briefly cleared zone A and quickly came back inside; that was the . On the data, Brent turned and the pound rose: the FTSE 100 fell to zone B, which held, and is now heading back towards the middle. It played out as in the , the between the two. is medium: the edges are working, but the Brent news still has no official response.

Gold

In one sentence No change: with low confidence, gold is still expected to rise, now as long as it above zone A (4,066.6–4,067.8). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

No change

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Breaking zone D and holding above it.
: If it breaks zone D and holds above it, zone E, yesterday’s high.
: Losing zone A and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of gold in the London second look. From top to bottom, key zones E, D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price falls to zone C, rebounds and comes back to zone B. In the first hour it moves sideways below zone A, briefly loses zone B and comes back; on the data it breaks zone A and rises to zone D, where it stalls. If it does not lose zone A, a rise is expected, with a possible pullback to zone A, and, if it breaks zone D, towards zone E. If it loses zone A and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled, with zone B as the next reference level.

For the rest of the London session

The three that matter most now

Zone D · 4,075.4–4,083.0 The : the rise has stalled there. Breaking it and holding above would give it more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 4,066.6–4,067.8 The deciding zone: the morning high, broken on the data; it now acts as support. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.
Zone B · 4,059.8–4,063.5 The price at the close of the last New York session: it briefly lost it in the first hour. The next reference level below if it loses zone A.

Also on the chart: zone E · 4,087.0–4,089.5, yesterday’s high, above, and zone C · 4,041.5–4,042.5, the overnight low, below.

Why

Why: the idea held, with a scare. In the first hour it briefly lost zone B and quickly got back above: that was the . It then moved sideways below zone A and, on the data, broke it and rose to zone D, the overnight high: it played out as in the . It has stalled there. The is still low: zone D is capping it just above and US Treasury yields are still rising.

Silver

In one sentence Change: for the rest of the London session, with low confidence, silver is expected to move in a range, between zone B (47.76–47.81) and zone A (47.84–47.86). If it moves outside either of them and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

Changepreviously: ~~Bullish~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone A stopping the rises and zone B, the falls.
: If an edge stops the price, the middle of the range, between zones B and A.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of silver in the London second look. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price falls to zone C, rebounds, stalls at zone A and comes back to zone B. At the open it briefly loses zone B and comes back; on the data it rises to zone A, which stops it twice. If it breaks neither, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

For the rest of the London session

The three that matter most now

Zone A · 47.84–47.86 The top of the range: the morning high, which stopped it twice after the data, while gold was breaking its own.
Zone B · 47.76–47.81 The bottom of the range: the price at the close of the last New York session. It briefly slipped below it at the open and got back above.
Zone C · 47.55–47.56 The : the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 47.95–48.04, the overnight high, the next reference level above if it breaks zone A.

Why

Why: at the open it briefly lost zone B and quickly got back above: that was the . On the data it rose with gold, but zone A, the morning high, stopped it twice, while gold broke through its own and reached the overnight high. Silver isn’t keeping up: it shifts to a , between zones B and A. is low: if gold keeps rising, silver could suddenly wake up and break zone A.

Brent

In one sentence Change: for the rest of the London session, with low confidence, Brent crude is expected to fall as long as it stays below zone D (64.18–64.30). If it breaks it and above it, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bearish

low confidence

Changepreviously: ~~Sideways~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Losing zone A and holding below it, or a rebound turning lower before zone D.
: Zone A; if it loses it and holds below, zone B.
: Breaking zone D and holding above it.

5-minute candlestick chart of Brent crude in the London second look. From top to bottom, key zones F, D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price falls to zone B and returns to the middle of the range; at the open it breaks zone A and rises to zone D, where it stalls; it then falls sharply to zone A and bounces. If it doesn’t break zone D, a fall towards zone A is expected and, if it loses that, towards zone B. If it breaks zone D and holds above it, the expected fall is cancelled, with zone F as the next reference level.

For the rest of the London session

The three that matter most now

Zone D · 64.18–64.30 Where the price was before the news: it has held the price back several times. If it breaks it and holds above, the expected fall is cancelled.
Zone A · 63.68–63.80 The old top of the range: it has just halted the fall.
Zone B · 63.05–63.15 The morning double bottom: the next reference level if it loses zone A.

Also on the chart: zone F · 64.62–64.74, the week’s high, above, and zone C · 62.58–62.70, the week’s low, below.

Why

Why: at the open it broke zone A and rose to zone D, where the price was before the news: it played out as in the . There it stalled several times and turned back sharply to zone A: the market still believes the news. is low: the news still has no official response, the price has already been there and back today, and zone A has just halted the fall.

EUR/USD

In one sentence Change: for the rest of the London session, with medium confidence, EUR/USD is expected to move in a range, between zone A (1.0797–1.0799) and zone C (1.0809–1.0812). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

medium confidence

Changepreviously: ~~Bullish~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone C stopping the rises and zone A, the falls.
: If an edge stops the price, the middle of the range, between zones A and C.
: Moving outside zone C or zone A and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of EUR/USD (the euro against the dollar) in the London second look. From top to bottom, key zones E, C, A and B. Before the open, the price rises slowly and breaks zone A; at the open it comes back to it and holds, and after the data it reaches zone C, where it stalls. If it breaks neither, a range between zones A and C is expected. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, a rise towards zone E; if it loses zone A, a fall towards zone B.

For the rest of the London session

The three that matter most now

Zone C · 1.0809–1.0812 The top of the range: the week’s high, reached after the data.
Zone A · 1.0797–1.0799 The bottom of the range: the overnight high, which held at the open.
Zone B · 1.0789–1.0792 The morning shelf: the next reference level below if it loses zone A.

Also on the chart: zone E · 1.0818–1.0821, the month’s high, the next reference level above if it breaks zone C.

Why

Why: it rose as expected. At the open it came back to zone A and held; it then reached zone C, the week’s high, and has stalled there: it played out as in the . The morning data barely moved it. With no more data due in Europe, it will usually stay in a between the two. is medium: the range is narrow and a false breakout can easily happen.

GBP/USD

In one sentence Confidence change, up to medium: GBP/USD is still expected to rise, now as long as it above zone A (1.2786–1.2788). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

medium confidence

Confidence changepreviously: ~~low~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Pulling back to zone C and holding there.
: Zone D, the week’s high.
: Losing zone A and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of GBP/USD (the pound against the dollar) in the London second look. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A and B. Before the open, the price breaks zone A and stalls at zone C; at the open it falls to zone B, which holds. It then breaks zone C, reaches zone D on the data and pulls back towards zone C. If it doesn’t lose zone A, a rise towards zone D is expected, with a possible pullback to zone C. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled, with zone B as the next reference level.

For the rest of the London session

The three that matter most now

Zone D · 1.2803–1.2806 The week’s high: it has already touched it once and stalled.
Zone C · 1.2792–1.2794 The old ceiling, now support: where the price could pull back to before rising further.
Zone A · 1.2786–1.2788 The deciding zone: the overnight high. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone B · 1.2779–1.2782, the morning shelf, which held at the open, below.

Why

Why: at the open it fell below zone A, but zone B held. Before the data it finally broke zone C and, on the data, reached zone D, the week’s high: it played out as in the . It’s now pulling back towards zone C, the old ceiling. The level rises to medium: zone C no longer holds it back. It isn’t high because zone D stopped it at the first attempt.

5-minute candles from the reference market. Your platform’s prices will most likely be a few points off (sometimes quite a lot more). Some candles or wicks may not match exactly. Go by the key zones, not the exact figure.

03 The session

Guide for the rest of the session

The rest of the morning: this is today’s last London analysis: the afternoon belongs to New York. There’s no major data left in Europe; the US figures come with the New York session. Only an official response to the news moving Brent would change the tone.

The guide, asset by asset

DAX: a rise is expected as long as it holds above zone F. If it pulls back to zone C and holds, the scenario gains strength.
FTSE 100: a range between zones B and A. In the middle, patience: Brent would decide which way it breaks out.
Gold: a rise is expected as long as it holds above zone A. If it breaks zone D, the overnight high, and holds above, the scenario gains strength.
Silver: a range between zones B and A. If gold keeps rising and silver breaks zone A and holds above, the expected range is cancelled.
Brent: a fall is expected as long as it stays below zone D. If it loses zone A and holds below, the scenario gains strength.
EUR/USD: a range between zones A and C. In the middle, patience.
GBP/USD: a rise is expected as long as it holds above zone A. Zone D, the week’s high, has already stopped it once.

Watch out for…

chasing the DAX after such a fast rise: a pullback towards zone C would be normal;
jumping on a FTSE 100 breakout: there has already been a trap at zone A today;
chasing gold just below zone D: the overnight high has already stopped it;
expecting silver to copy gold: it hasn’t kept pace with it today;
Brent: it has already been there and back today, and an official response to the news would move it sharply;
the middle of the EUR/USD range;
assuming GBP/USD will break zone D at the first attempt: it has already been stopped there once.

New York session

Stage 1 · Produced with artificial intelligence

Before the open: the pre-open report

01 The day, summed up

At a glance ·

8 assets: Bullish 3, Sideways 3 and Bearish 2.

Bullish Sideways Bearish
Confidence: low medium high

Dow Jones Bearish medium confidence
Nasdaq 100 Bullish low confidence
S&P 500 Sideways low confidence
Gold Sideways medium confidence
Silver Sideways medium confidence
WTI Bearish low confidence
Bitcoin Bullish medium confidence
USD/CAD Bullish low confidence

It’s an expectation from the analysis. It isn’t a certainty, a buy or sell order, or a personalised recommendation.

The day’s context · What’s moving the market today

The session and the headlines: Asia mixed; Europe higher. A geopolitical news story, still without an official response, is pushing down the price of . US indices are rising before the open, led by tech on favourable news (the , where tech carries less weight, is rising less than the Nasdaq 100), and Bitcoin, which has traded all night, is rising with them. The dollar is giving ground against almost every currency (and gold and silver are rising), but not against the Canadian dollar, hit by cheaper WTI: is rising. US , however, are still rising: the market doesn’t fully trust the calm.
What’s driving the market: interest rates: US bond yields are at multi-year highs. In this , strong data is read as bad for the indices, because it pushes rate cuts further away: good news for the economy can be bad news for the stock market. For now, the Federal Reserve isn’t changing the script. The market is coming off weeks of ranges and sweeps, with no trend days.
Schedule and: Before the open Orders data, mixed. The market has already reacted.

High-risk hour: Just before the A Federal Reserve member speaks.

High-risk hour: The first half hour When the day’s high or low is most often set.

High-risk hour: Half an hour after the open Today’s most important release: the consumer confidence survey and inflation expectations.

High-risk hour: In the afternoon Another Federal Reserve member.

02 Asset by asset

Dow Jones

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, the Dow Jones is expected to fall as long as it stays below zone A (48,685–48,696). If it breaks it and above it, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bearish

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Reaching zone A and turning lower (even if it briefly goes above it and quickly drops back below), or losing zone B and holding below it. In between, patience.
: Zone C, where the gap would close.
: Breaking zone A and holding above it.

5-minute candlestick chart of the Dow Jones before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price finds support at zone B, rises to zone A and stays below it, between zones B and A. If it doesn’t break zone A, a fall towards zone C is expected. If it breaks it and holds above it, a rise towards zone D.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 48,685–48,696 The : a zone that has stopped the price many times. Just above it there are .
Zone B · 48,530–48,540 The deciding zone below: if it loses it and holds below, the move down gains strength.
Zone C · 48,435–48,473 The previous session’s close: that’s where the gap would be filled.

Also on the chart: zone D · 48,816–48,828, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: it has been falling for several sessions in a row, and in the latest ones it has often set the day’s high right at the open. If it opens where it’s trading now, it will do so with a up, below zone A and with bond yields at highs. Gaps like this tend to close. is medium: the overnight session was bullish.

Scenarios

As long as it stays below zone A, a fall is expected. If it reaches zone A and shows rejection, or if it loses zone B and holds below, the move down gains strength, with zone C as the . Between zones B and A, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above it, the expected fall is cancelled: a rise towards zone D is expected.
If it briefly goes above zone A, triggers the stops just above and quickly drops back below, it was a sweep: the focus shifts to zone B and then to C.

In similar sessions this happened almost half the time, and even more often in recent sessions.

Nasdaq 100

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, the Nasdaq 100 is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (28,570–28,577). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Pulling back to zone A and holding there.
: Zone C, the overnight high; if it breaks it and holds above, zone D.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of the Nasdaq 100 before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A, B and E. Before the open, the price rises to zone C and pulls back to settle above zone A. If it doesn’t lose zone B, a rise towards zone C is expected. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone E is expected.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone C · 28,743–28,760 The overnight high. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 28,637–28,652 The support for the rise: where the price could pull back to before rising further.
Zone B · 28,570–28,577 The deciding zone: the previous session’s high. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone D · 28,806–28,842, the next reference level above, and zone E · 28,496–28,514, the previous session’s close.

Why

Why: the session was bullish, led by tech and cheaper WTI. If it opens where it’s trading now, it will open above the previous close. The level is low: the rise in is weighing on tech, the Nasdaq 100 analysis was wrong in the previous two sessions, and the gap to the previous close is narrowing.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it pulls back to zone A and holds, it gains strength. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, the is zone D.
If it loses zone B and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall is expected towards zone E, which would fill the . It gains strength if the price already opens close to zone B.
If it briefly clears zone C and quickly drops back below, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone A and then to B.

In similar sessions, this trap happened just over three times in ten.

S&P 500

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, the S&P 500 is expected to move in a range, between zone B (6,920–6,924) and zone A (6,973–6,977). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone A stopping the rises and zone B, the falls.
: If zone A stops it, the middle of the range and then zone B. If zone B holds, the middle of the range.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of the S&P 500 before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price rises to zone A, the overnight high, and pulls back towards the middle of the range. If it breaks neither, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 6,973–6,977 The upper edge of the range: the , which the price hasn’t been able to clear. Just above it there are stops.
Zone B · 6,920–6,924 The lower edge of the range: the previous session’s close. If it opens where it’s trading now, that’s where it would fill the .
Zone C · 6,896–6,901 The week’s low: the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 6,990–6,995, the week’s highs, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: the S&P 500 brings together 500 large US companies, and today two forces are pushing it in opposite directions: tech is pulling it up, as with the Nasdaq 100, and at their highs are weighing on the rest, as with the Dow Jones. After nights like this, the market most often spends the day in a , from the overnight high to the previous close. The level is low: the range is wide, and the data due half an hour after the open could break it either way.

Scenarios

between zones B and A. If it reaches zone A and shows rejection, a move back towards the middle is expected; if it drops to zone B, fills the gap and holds, a move back towards the middle. In the middle, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above, a rise towards zone D is expected, led by the Nasdaq 100. If it loses zone B and holds below, a fall towards zone C.
If it briefly loses zone B and quickly comes back inside, it was a sweep: the focus returns to the middle of the range.

In similar sessions this happened just over one time in three.

Gold

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, gold is expected to move in a range, between zone B (4,075.4–4,083.0) and zone A (4,099.9–4,105.3). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone A stopping the rises and zone B, the falls.
: If zone A stops it, the middle of the range and then zone B. If zone B holds, the middle of the range.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of gold before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price rises to zone A and pulls back to the middle of the range. If it breaks neither, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 4,099.9–4,105.3 The upper edge of the range, with the overnight high inside it. Just above it there are stops.
Zone B · 4,075.4–4,083.0 The lower edge of the range: the previous session’s high.
Zone C · 4,059.8–4,063.5 The previous session’s close: the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 4,109.8–4,123.2, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: the weak dollar is pushing it up and rising bond yields are holding it back: two forces pulling in opposite directions. What’s more, overnight it has already moved further than gold usually moves in a whole day, and after nights like this the session most often stays within that . Overnight it reached the top of the range, zone A, and it’s now in the middle.

Scenarios

between zones B and A. If it reaches zone A and shows rejection, a move back towards the middle and zone B is expected; if it reaches zone B and holds, a move back towards the middle. In the middle, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above, a rise towards zone D is expected. If it loses zone B and holds below, a fall towards zone C.
If it briefly clears zone A and quickly comes back inside, it was a sweep: the focus returns to the middle and zone B.

After nights like this, it happened about four times in ten.

Silver

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, silver is expected to move in a range, between zone B (47.95–48.04) and zone A (48.23–48.30). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding, with gold also in its range: zone A stopping the rises and zone B, the falls.
: If zone A stops it, the middle of the range and then zone B. If zone B holds, the middle of the range.
: Moving outside zone A or zone B and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of silver before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price rises to zone A and pulls back to the middle of the range, like gold. If it breaks neither, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 48.23–48.30 The upper edge of the range, with the overnight high inside it. Just above it there are stops.
Zone B · 47.95–48.04 The lower edge of the range: the previous session’s high.
Zone C · 47.76–47.81 The previous session’s close: the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 48.35–48.51, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: silver tends to move with gold, and today the forces are the same: the weak dollar is pushing it up and rising are holding it back. Like gold, overnight it reached the top of the , zone A, and it’s now in the middle. is medium: silver tends to move more than gold, and its edges break more easily.

Scenarios

between zones B and A, like gold. If it reaches zone A and shows rejection, a move back towards the middle and zone B is expected; if it reaches zone B and holds, a move back towards the middle. In the middle, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above, a rise towards zone D is expected. If it loses zone B and holds below, a fall towards zone C. It gains strength if gold breaks out of its range in the same direction.
If it briefly clears zone A and quickly comes back inside, it was a sweep: the focus returns to the middle and zone B.

After nights like this, it happened just over three times in ten.

WTI

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, WTI crude is expected to fall as long as it stays below zone A (59.98–60.10). If it breaks it and above it, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bearish

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: A bounce towards zone A that turns lower before breaking it, or losing zone B and holding below it.
: Zone B, the overnight low; if it loses it and holds below, zone C.
: Breaking zone A and holding above it.

5-minute candlestick chart of WTI crude before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, B and C. Before the open, the price falls to zone B, the overnight low, bounces to zone A and stalls below it. If it doesn’t break zone A, a fall towards zone B is expected and, if it loses that, towards zone C. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone A · 59.98–60.10 The top of the overnight bounce: that’s where the price stalled. If it breaks it and holds above, the expected fall is cancelled.
Zone B · 59.35–59.45 The : if it loses it and holds below, the move down gains strength.
Zone C · 58.88–59.00 The week’s low: the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Also on the chart: zone D · 60.48–60.60, where the price was before the news, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: , the geopolitical news has pushed it lower: less risk to supply. The early-hours bounce stalled at zone A, and the price isn’t taking advantage of the weak dollar, which usually supports it. The level is low: the news still has no official response and, if it’s denied, the lost ground could be recovered all at once. Also, yesterday’s weekly US inventory report showed lower stocks.

Scenarios

As long as it stays below zone A, a fall towards zone B, the overnight low, is expected. If it loses that and holds below, it gains strength, with zone C as the . Between zones B and A, patience.
If it breaks zone A and holds above, the expected fall is cancelled: a rise is expected towards zone D, where the price was before the news. It gains strength if an official response denies the news.
If it briefly loses zone B and quickly gets back above, it was a sweep: the focus returns to the middle, between zones B and A.

In similar sessions this happened just under three times in ten.

Bitcoin

In one sentence Today, with medium confidence, Bitcoin is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (112,600–112,780). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

medium confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: A pullback to zone A that holds, with the Nasdaq 100 moving the same way.
: Zone C, the overnight high; if it breaks it and holds above, zone D.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of Bitcoin before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A, B and E. Overnight, the price rises from zone B to zone C and pulls back to rest on zone A. If it doesn’t lose zone B, a rise towards zone C is expected. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone E is expected.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone C · 113,580–113,720 The overnight high. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 113,020–113,140 The morning support: the price has already pulled back there once and held.
Zone B · 112,600–112,780 The deciding zone: where the last overnight rise started. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone D · 114,300–114,520, the week’s high, above, and zone E · 111,880–112,020, the price at the close of the last New York session, below.

Why

Why: Bitcoin trades around the clock, and it has risen on risk appetite and the weak dollar. In addition, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows in recent sessions. is medium: the rise in is cooling risk appetite and, in the New York session, Bitcoin often moves with the Nasdaq 100, which carries low confidence today.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it pulls back to zone A and holds, it gains strength. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, the is zone D.
If it loses zone B and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall is expected towards zone E, the price at the close of the last New York session. It gains strength if the Nasdaq 100 also turns lower.
If it briefly clears zone C and quickly drops back below, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone A and then to B.

After overnight rises like this, this happened around one time in three.

USD/CAD

In one sentence Today, with low confidence, USD/CAD is expected to rise as long as it above zone B (1.3787–1.3791). If it loses it and holds below, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: A pullback to zone A that holds, and WTI staying on the back foot.
: Zone C, the overnight high; if it breaks it and holds above, zone D.
: Losing zone B and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of USD/CAD before the open. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A, B and E. Overnight, the price rises from zone B to zone C and pulls back to rest on zone A. If it doesn’t lose zone B, a rise towards zone C is expected. If it loses it and holds below, a fall towards zone E is expected.

To be reviewed in the second look

The three that matter most

Zone C · 1.3824–1.3829 The overnight high. Breaking it and holding above would give the rise more strength; clearing it briefly and coming back would be a .
Zone A · 1.3804–1.3807 The early-hours support: the price has already pulled back there once and held.
Zone B · 1.3787–1.3791 The deciding zone: where the overnight rise started. If it loses it and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled.

Also on the chart: zone D · 1.3850–1.3856, the week’s high, above, and zone E · 1.3768–1.3773, the price at the close of the last New York session, below.

Why

Why: Canada exports a lot of oil, and the fall in WTI is weighing on the Canadian dollar: USD/CAD has been rising throughout the early hours. US at their highs are also supporting the dollar against its Canadian counterpart. The level is low: today the dollar is giving ground against almost every other currency and, if WTI bounces (for example, on a denial of the news), the Canadian dollar could recover sharply.

Scenarios

As long as it holds above zone B, a rise is expected. If it pulls back to zone A and holds, it gains strength. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, the is zone D.
If it loses zone B and holds below, the expected rise is cancelled: a fall is expected towards zone E, the price at the close of the last New York session. It gains strength if WTI bounces decisively.
If it briefly clears zone C and quickly drops back below, it was a sweep: the focus returns to zone A and then to B.

In similar sessions this happened around one time in four.

Each asset has its own zones: zone A for gold has nothing to do with zone A for the Dow Jones. The letters don’t follow price order; the list runs from top to bottom, like the chart.

03 The session

Your broker may show a different price

Session guide

What to expect: an open with possible traps at the overnight extremes. The clearest view is the gold range, and with it the silver range; then the Dow Jones at zone A and Bitcoin above its zone B; WTI, the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and USD/CAD come last, with low confidence. The thermometer isn’t revised until the second look: in the meantime, keep an eye on what would cancel each expectation.

Watch out for…

jumping on the first break of an overnight extreme at the open, in any of the eight: it’s often a ;
taking a Nasdaq 100 fall for granted just because yields are rising;
treating the WTI news as final: with no official response, the price could turn sharply, and USD/CAD with it;
the middle of the gold and silver ranges, between their zones B and A: there, the price tells you nothing.

The full details

See the full analysis

All the key zones: As well as the three on each card, zone D for each asset (and E for the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin and USD/CAD): the next reference levels above or below, with their price band. You can see them on the enlarged chart.
The full scenarios: Each scenario with its condition, what would strengthen it and what would cancel it. Session statistic: after an overnight session that has already covered so much ground, gold tends to stay within the overnight range. Across all eight, the first half hour is when the day’s high or low is most often set.
1-minute candles: The Dow Jones is moving sideways below zone A. The Nasdaq 100 is pulling back from the overnight high with lower highs and lower lows. The S&P 500 is pulling back from the overnight high towards the middle of the range. Gold is forming a double bottom above zone B, and so is silver. WTI is stalling below zone A with lower highs. Bitcoin is pulling back from the overnight high and finding support at zone A. USD/CAD is finding support at zone A and bouncing with higher lows.
What’s being adjusted today: The Nasdaq 100 analysis has been wrong for two sessions running: today it comes with low confidence and with the downside written in as a real alternative. Gold recently made a false breakout: today the analysis reads the edges, not the breakouts.
Risks: A negative response to the geopolitical news. Bond yields above their high. The two appearances.

Stage 2 · Produced with artificial intelligence

Second look: what the session has shown so far

Once the session is under way

01 The day, summed up

At a glance ·

8 assets: Bullish 1, Sideways 4 and Bearish 3.

Bullish Sideways Bearish
Confidence: low medium high
Change compared with the previous stage

Dow Jones Bearish medium confidence No change
Nasdaq 100 Bearish low confidence Change previously: ~~Bullish~~
S&P 500 Sideways low confidence No change
Gold Sideways low confidence Confidence change previously: ~~medium~~
Silver Sideways low confidence Confidence change previously: ~~medium~~
WTI Bearish medium confidence Confidence change previously: ~~low~~
Bitcoin Sideways low confidence Change previously: ~~Bullish~~
USD/CAD Bullish low confidence No change

It’s an expectation from the analysis. It isn’t a certainty, a buy or sell order, or a personalised recommendation.

The essentials now

The Dow Jones did what was expected: a at zone A and a drop to zone C, with the gap closed. Still Bearish.
The Nasdaq 100 lost zone B, confirming the : it turns Bearish, with low confidence.
The S&P 500 swept zone B, the previous session’s close, on the data and came back inside the range, with the gap closed. Still Sideways.
Gold lost its range before the bell and swept the overnight low: the analysis now expects a lower range, between zones E and F, with low confidence.
Silver did the same as gold: it lost its range before the bell and swept the overnight low. The analysis now expects a lower range, between zones E and F, with low confidence.
WTI lost the overnight low on the data: the main scenario played out. Still Bearish, now with medium confidence.
Bitcoin lost zone B on the data and the bullish case was cancelled: it turns Sideways, between zones E and B, with low confidence.
USD/CAD rose on the data to zone C, the overnight high, as the analysis had set out. Still Bullish, now as long as it holds above zone A.

What has happened since the open

What moved the first hour was the release that mattered most today. It came out in line with expectations and didn’t change the script, but, with bond yields at the day’s highs, it was enough to push the indices, the metals, WTI and Bitcoin lower all at once, and USD/CAD higher. Before the data, all eight had already opened lower than when the pre-open report was published. The Dow Jones had pushed above zone A briefly and dropped back below, and gold and silver had lost their zone B before the bell. With the push from the data, the Dow Jones reached zone C and the Nasdaq 100 came close to the overnight low; gold and silver swept theirs; the S&P 500 swept the previous session’s close; WTI lost its overnight low, and Bitcoin lost zone B, where its overnight rally had started. USD/CAD, on the other hand, rose to the overnight high. Same push, eight different outcomes.

02 Asset by asset

Dow Jones

In one sentence No change: with medium confidence, the analysis still expects the Dow Jones to fall, now as long as it stays below zone F (48,609–48,639). If it breaks through and above it, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bearish

medium confidence

No change

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Bouncing to zone F and turning lower, or losing zone B and holding below it.
: Zone C, the session low; if it loses it and holds below it, zone E.
: Breaking zone F and holding above it.

5-minute candlestick chart of the Dow Jones in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones A, F, B, C and E. In the first hour, the price pushes above zone A briefly and drops back below, loses zone B and reaches zone C; it then bounces and finds support at zone B. If it doesn’t break zone F, a fall towards zone C is expected. If it breaks through and holds above it, the bearish case is cancelled, with zone A as the next reference level.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone F · 48,609–48,639 : where a bounce could turn lower. If it breaks through and holds above it, the bearish case is cancelled.
Zone B · 48,530–48,540 Now acting as a floor: if it loses it and holds below it, the fall resumes.
Zone C · 48,435–48,473 The previous session’s close, already reached, and the session low.

Also on the chart: zone A · 48,685–48,696, the overnight high, above, and zone E · 48,365–48,403, the overnight low, below.

Why

Why: the first hour went as expected: it pushed above zone A briefly and dropped back below, which was the ; on the data it lost zone B and reached zone C, with the gap closed. It stays Bearish because in recent sessions the day’s low has almost always come later. is medium: zone B is holding as a floor.

Nasdaq 100

In one sentence Change: with low confidence, the analysis now expects the Nasdaq 100 to fall for the rest of the session, as long as it doesn’t reclaim zone B (28,570–28,577). If it reclaims it and above it, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bearish

low confidence

Changepreviously: ~~Bullish~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Bounces turning lower at zone G.
: Zone F, the overnight low.
: Reclaiming zone B and holding above it.

5-minute candlestick chart of the Nasdaq 100 in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones A, B, G, E and F. In the first hour, the price opens above zone B, rises without reaching the overnight high, loses zone B, reaches zone E and stalls just above zone F. If it doesn’t reclaim zone B, a fall towards zone F is expected. If it reclaims it and holds above it, the bearish case is cancelled, with zone A as the next reference level.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone B · 28,570–28,577 The old floor, now a ceiling: if it reclaims it and holds above it, the bearish case is cancelled.
Zone G · 28,523–28,542 : where bounces could turn lower.
Zone F · 28,429–28,437 The overnight low and the session low: holding, with no sweep.

Also on the chart: zone A · 28,637–28,652, the next reference level above if it reclaims zone B, and zone E · 28,496–28,514, the previous session’s close, already reached.

Why

Why: on the data it lost zone B, retested it from below and was rejected, closed the gap at zone E and came close to the : this confirmed the . is low: the overnight low is holding and the Nasdaq 100 has often set its high at the end of the session.

S&P 500

In one sentence No change: with low confidence, the analysis still expects the S&P 500 to move in a range, between zone B (6,920–6,924) and zone A (6,973–6,977). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

No change

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone B, already swept and reclaimed, stops the falls, and zone A stops the rises.
: Zone E, the first-hour high; then zone A.
: Breaking out beyond zone B or zone A and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of the S&P 500 in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones D, A, E, B and C. In the first hour, the price opens lower than when the pre-open report was published, rises to zone E, falls on the data, sweeps zone B and comes back inside the range. If it breaks neither, a range between zones B and A is expected. If it breaks zone A and holds above it, a rise towards zone D; if it loses zone B, a fall towards zone C.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone A · 6,973–6,977 The upper edge of the range: the overnight high. If it breaks through and holds above it, the range case is cancelled.
Zone E · 6,962–6,966 : the first-hour high, where bounces could stall in the middle of the range.
Zone B · 6,920–6,924 The lower edge of the range: the previous session’s close, swept on the data and reclaimed. Gap closed.

Also on the chart: zone D · 6,990–6,995, the next reference level above if it breaks zone A, and zone C · 6,896–6,901, the next reference level below if it loses zone B.

Why

Why: the first hour was range-bound: it rose to zone E, fell on the data, swept zone B, the previous session’s close, and came back inside, with the closed. After a like that, the analysis still expects a . is low: the Nasdaq 100 has turned Bearish and the Dow Jones is still Bearish; if both fall at the same time, zone B might not hold a second time.

Gold

In one sentence Confidence change, down to low: the analysis still expects a range in gold, now lower down, between zone E (4,041.5–4,042.5) and zone F (4,063.8–4,069.5). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

Confidence changepreviously: ~~medium~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges of the new range holding: zone F stops the rises and zone E the falls.
: If an edge stops the price, the middle of the range, between zones E and F.
: Breaking out beyond zone F or zone E and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of gold in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones B, F, E and G. Before the bell, the price loses zone B; in the first hour it sweeps zone E and comes back inside. If it breaks neither zone F nor zone E, a range between the two is expected. If it breaks zone F and holds above it, a rise towards zone B; if it loses zone E, a fall towards zone G.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone F · 4,063.8–4,069.5 The new top of the range: the open and the session high.
Zone E · 4,041.5–4,042.5 The overnight low: swept and reclaimed.
Zone G · 4,030.6–4,031.3 The week’s low: the next reference level below if it loses zone E.

Also on the chart: zone B · 4,075.4–4,083.0, the old lower edge of the range, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: it lost zone B before the and, on the data, swept the overnight low (zone E) and came back inside. After a like that, the day usually ends inside the overnight range: the analysis still expects a range, now lower down. is low: yields, at the day’s highs, are pulling gold lower.

Silver

In one sentence Confidence change, down to low: the analysis still expects a range in silver, now lower down, between zone E (47.55–47.56) and zone F (47.82–47.88). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

Confidence changepreviously: ~~medium~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges of the new range holding: zone F stops the rises and zone E the falls.
: If an edge stops the price, the middle of the range, between zones E and F.
: Breaking out beyond zone F or zone E and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of silver in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones B, F, E and G. Before the bell, the price loses zone B; in the first hour it sweeps zone E and comes back inside, like gold. If it breaks neither zone F nor zone E, a range between the two is expected. If it breaks zone F and holds above it, a rise towards zone B; if it loses zone E, a fall towards zone G.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone F · 47.82–47.88 The new top of the range: the open and the session high.
Zone E · 47.55–47.56 The overnight low: swept and reclaimed.
Zone G · 47.42–47.43 The week’s low: the next reference level below if it loses zone E.

Also on the chart: zone B · 47.95–48.04, the old lower edge of the range, the next reference level above.

Why

Why: like gold, it lost zone B before the and, on the data, swept the overnight low (zone E) and came back inside. The analysis still expects a , now lower down. is low: yields, at the day’s highs, are pulling both metals lower.

WTI

In one sentence Confidence change, up to medium: the analysis still expects WTI to fall, now as long as it doesn’t reclaim zone B (59.35–59.45). If it reclaims it and above it, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bearish

medium confidence

Confidence changepreviously: ~~low~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Bounces turning lower below zone B.
: Zone C, the week’s low; if it loses it and holds below it, zone E.
: Reclaiming zone B and holding above it.

5-minute candlestick chart of WTI crude in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones A, B, C and E. In the first hour, the price opens below zone A, loses zone B on the data, retests it from below, is rejected and stalls just above zone C. If it doesn’t reclaim zone B, a fall towards zone C is expected. If it reclaims it and holds above it, the bearish case is cancelled, with zone A as the next reference level.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone B · 59.35–59.45 The old overnight low, now a ceiling: if it reclaims it and holds above it, the bearish case is cancelled.
Zone C · 58.88–59.00 The week’s low: the price has stalled just above it.
Zone E · 58.42–58.54 The month’s low: the next reference level below if it loses zone C.

Also on the chart: zone A · 59.98–60.10, the top of the overnight bounce, the next reference level above if it reclaims zone B.

Why

Why: on the data it lost zone B, the , retested it from below and was rejected: this confirmed the . is medium: there’s still no response to the geopolitical news, and WTI isn’t even benefiting from the weak dollar. It has stalled just above zone C, the week’s low.

Bitcoin

In one sentence Change: with low confidence, the analysis now expects Bitcoin to move in a range for the rest of the session, between zone E (111,880–112,020) and zone B (112,600–112,780). If it breaks out of either and outside, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Sideways

low confidence

Changepreviously: ~~Bullish~~

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: The edges holding: zone B stops the rises and zone E the falls.
: If an edge stops the price, the middle of the range, between zones E and B.
: Breaking out beyond zone B or zone E and holding outside.

5-minute candlestick chart of Bitcoin in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones A, B, E and F. Overnight, the price rises to its overnight high and pulls back to zone A; in the first hour it loses zone B on the data, retests it from below and reaches zone E, where it holds. If it breaks neither, a range between zones E and B is expected. If it breaks zone B and holds above it, a rise towards zone A; if it loses zone E, a fall towards zone F.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone B · 112,600–112,780 The old support, now the top of the range: lost on the data and rejected from below.
Zone E · 111,880–112,020 The floor of the range: the price at the close of the last New York session. It has held.
Zone F · 111,250–111,420 The week’s low: the next reference level below if it loses zone E.

Also on the chart: zone A · 113,020–113,140, the morning support, the next reference level above if it breaks zone B.

Why

Why: on the data it lost zone B, retested it from below and was rejected: the bullish case was cancelled exactly where the analysis had said it would be. It reached zone E, the price at the close of the last New York session, and held there. The analysis expects a between the two. is low: Bitcoin is very volatile and, if the Nasdaq 100 bounces, it could go with it.

USD/CAD

In one sentence No change: with low confidence, the analysis still expects USD/CAD to rise, now as long as it above zone A (1.3804–1.3807). If it loses it and holds below it, this idea is cancelled.

What the analysis expects for today

Bullish

low confidence

No change

BearishSidewaysBullish

What the analysis is watching

: Breaking zone C and holding above it, or pulling back to zone A and holding there.
: Zone D, the week’s high, if it breaks zone C and holds above it.
: Losing zone A and holding below it.

5-minute candlestick chart of USD/CAD in the second look. From top to bottom, key zones D, C, A and B. Before the open, the price eases towards zone B without losing it; in the first hour, on the data, it jumps to zone C, the overnight high, and stalls there. If it doesn’t lose zone A, a rise towards zone D is expected. If it loses it and holds below it, the bullish case is cancelled, with zone B as the next reference level.

For the rest of the session

The three that matter most now

Zone C · 1.3824–1.3829 The overnight high, reached on the data. Breaking it and holding above it would open the way towards zone D.
Zone A · 1.3804–1.3807 The early-hours support, now the deciding zone: if it loses it and holds below it, the bullish case is cancelled.
Zone B · 1.3787–1.3791 Where the overnight rally started: the next reference level below if it loses zone A.

Also on the chart: zone D · 1.3850–1.3856, the week’s high, above.

Why

Why: on the data, and with at the day’s highs, the dollar firmed and WTI lost the overnight low: USD/CAD jumped to zone C, the overnight high, as the analysis had set out. Still Bullish, now above zone A. is low: the rise depends on WTI and on yields and, over the day as a whole, the dollar is still weak against almost every other currency.

03 The session

Guide for the rest of the session

In the afternoon: a speech by a Federal Reserve member. No more data due. The tone would only change if they talk about a pause or rate cuts.

The guide, asset by asset

Dow Jones: a fall is expected as long as it stays below zone F. If it bounces to zone F and shows rejection, the scenario gains strength.
Nasdaq 100: a fall is expected as long as it doesn’t reclaim zone B. If it reclaims it and holds above it, the idea is cancelled.
S&P 500: a range between zones B and A. In the middle, patience: zone E may stall bounces.
Gold: a range between zones E and F. In the middle, patience.
Silver: a range between zones E and F, like gold. In the middle, patience.
WTI: a fall is expected as long as it doesn’t reclaim zone B. If it bounces to it and shows rejection, the scenario gains strength.
Bitcoin: a range between zones E and B. In the middle, patience.
USD/CAD: a rise is expected as long as it holds above zone A. If it breaks zone C and holds above it, the next reference level is zone D.

Watch out for…

assuming the Dow Jones has made its low at zone B: in recent sessions it has almost always come later;
chasing the Nasdaq 100’s drop at the overnight low without it holding below: there are stops just underneath;
the middle of the gold and silver ranges;
assuming USD/CAD will keep rising if WTI bounces: today’s rise depends on it;
assuming Bitcoin will bounce if the indices bounce: they often move together, but not always.

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Before the open: the pre-open report

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At a glance · What the analysis expects for today

The essentials now

What has happened since the open

Dow Jones

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Guide for the rest of the session

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